Is it possible to get away from an overpair like pocket kings when your opponent flops a set? Our friends at GTO Wizard examined a hand from the 2025 PokerStars European Poker Tour (EPT) €5,300 Malta Main Event that examines such a situation.
The hand between Aliaksei Boika and Mykhailo Ostash took place with four players remaining and blinds of 50,000/100,000/100,000 with €760,000 on the line.
Payouts:
1st: €760,000
2nd: €474,650
3rd: €339,000
4th: €260,750
Stack Sizes and Positions:
Aliaksei Boika (CO): 4,300,000 (43bb)
Adria Calonge (BTN): 3,150,000 (31.5bb)
Tomasz Brzezinski (SB): 5,150,000 (51.5bb)
Mykhailo Ostash (BB): 14,350,000 (143.5bb)
The Action
Aliaksei Boika opens to 200,000 in the CO holding K♦K♣. Mykhailo Ostash defends from the BB with 5♥5♣. Both players check on the flop of 9♥8♠5♠ and Ostash bets 500,000 on the 4♥ turn. Boika called.
On the 2♦ river, Ostash bets all-in (3,600,000 effective). Boika calls quickly for his tournament life. Ostash shows 5♥5♣ for a set of fives. Boika shows his K♦K♣ and is out in 4th place, cashing for €260,750.
Pre-Flop Analysis
Aliaksei Boika opens to 200,000 in the CO holding K♦K♣. GTO Approved
Mykhailo Ostash defends from the BB with 5♥5♣. GTO Approved
Standard plays from both players. Let’s move onto post-flop play.
Post-Flop Analysis
Flop (550K Pot): 9♥8♠5♠
Ostash checks. GTO Approved
Interestingly, the solver suggests a significant amount of donk-betting from the BB on this specific flop. This is because the BB’s range contains many straight and two-pair combos, allowing betting to be mixed with checking. However, 55 generally prefers to check on this flop.
Boika checks. GTO Approved
Because the BB’s range contains many straights and two-pair combos, the CO ends up checking frequently on the flop, even with very strong hands like AA and KK. Notice that AA and KK are checking more often than hands like TT and JJ. Why? It’s for pot control: since the BB has many strong hands in their range on this flop, including AA and KK in the checking range helps balance it, preventing the CO’s checks from consisting only of weak holdings. TT and JJ, on the other hand, require more protection, which is why they are betting more frequently, despite being weaker than AA and KK.
EV for KK on the Flop vs BB Check:
You can see that the solver recommends betting more with K♠. This is because the hand has additional equity from the backdoor flush, making it easier to call a check-raise from the BB on the flop.
Turn (550K Pot): 4♥
Ostash bets 500,000 with 5♥5♣. GTO Approved
Recommended Bet Sizes and EV for 55 on the Turn:
Above, you can see that the solver’s most frequently recommended bet size is 26%, while the 90% size is used only 14.5% of the time. The larger size is primarily employed by hands that want to extract a lot of value on the turn but also require protection, such as 9x hands. The 26% size is used for most of the other pairs.
Interestingly, the solver never uses the 90% size with 55. While the EV of betting 90% with 55 is very close to that of betting 26%, the solver avoids it to maintain balance. Strong hands like sets need to be included in the 26% betting range to prevent this line from being exploitable; if only weaker pairs and bluffs used this size, opponents could easily take advantage.
Boika calls the 500,000 bet with K♦K♣. GTO Approved
The solver recommends almost no raising on the turn here, due to the BB employing a polarised betting range.
What is a polarised bet in poker? A polarised bet means you are betting with two types of hands only:
- Your strongest value hands (hands that want to get called)
- Your weakest bluffs (hands that can’t win at showdown and want folds)
EV for KK on the Turn vs the 500,000 bet:
Raising with KK against this range makes little sense, as it only folds out bluffs while getting called by stronger hands.
River (1,550,000 Pot): 2♦
Ostash bets all-in with 5♥5♣. GTO Approved
Once again, the solver recommends a polarised bet on the river with the top and bottom of your range, putting your opponent to the test. The all-in size tells your opponent that you either have a very strong hand or you’re bluffing. A balanced range in this spot is very hard to play against.
EV for 55 on the River:
The all-in sizing is the highest EV play with 55 on the river.
Boika calls the all-in with K♦K♣. GTO Disapproved
Possibly the toughest decision of the entire hand, but one that Boika unfortunately got wrong, both in-game and in theory.
EV for KK on the River vs the all-in:
Above, you can see that the solver’s recommended river play with KK is mostly to fold, with K♦K♣ mixing in a call at a very low frequency. However, this is against a range that includes a balanced number of bluffs.
Let’s see what happens if we nodelock the BB to check more with their bluffs, which is likely how most players would actually play in-game, and examine how this affects KK’s calling range and EV.
What is nodelocking? Nodelocking is the process of forcing a specific action or frequency at a particular decision point (node) in a solver’s strategy, so that the solver recalculates optimal strategies for the rest of the hand based on that forced action.
Vs this nodelocked range, only sets and straights are calling on the river.
KK now folds completely, with its calling EV significantly reduced compared to earlier.
Conclusion
A super interesting hand played on one of poker’s biggest stages, the EPT Main Event. Both players demonstrated a high level of skill in navigating this spot, but unfortunately for Boika, his biggest mistake came on the river, costing him his tournament life. Boika cashed for €260,750 and finished in fourth place. Mykhailo Ostash secured second place, ultimately taking home €603,058 after chopping the heads-up prize pool.
Check out the full hand on YouTube beginning at the 12:00 mark.
