Is Crochet Fading Down the Stretch? – September 3, 2025
Nick Kurtz (1B-ATH) went 1-3 with a 2B, RBI, and walk as he returned to action following a three-game absence (oblique). The 22 year-old will look to continue his push to be Rookie of the Year as he now boasts a .309 average, 27 homers, 71 RBI, and 70 runs scored across 396 PA. Kurtz has fanned a good bit (30%) as his swinging-strike rate is 13% and his in-zone contact rate isn’t great at 79%, but he’s drawn walks (13.5%) while punishing the baseball when he’s been able to get the bat on it as Statcast shows a 51% hard-hit rate, 17% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 92.5 mph. All things considered, the power is legit but fantasy owners should expect his average to regress in the future as the whiffs and a .395 BABIP do not bode well.
Luis Severino (SP-ATH) came off the IL (oblique) to hold the Cardinals scoreless over 5 IP (3 H, 1 BB, 4 K) in which he was limited to 61 pitches (35 strikes). The 31 year-old RHP has underwhelmed in his first season with the Athletics as he now owns a 4.65 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 4.56 xFIP over 141.1 IP. Severino’s swinging-strike rate has cratered to just 7% after it came in at an unimpressive 9.5% a season ago while the opposition has registered a career-high 89.5% in-zone contact rate against him. Meanwhile, they have made plenty of loud contact against him, with Statcast showing a 43% hard-hit rate that is the second highest of his career, although an average exit velocity of 88.5 mph and 6% barrel rate are both close to his career norms. He should probably be left on the bench in fantasy early next week when he faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks in the top 10 in baseball in team OPS (.783) over the last 15 days.
Shota Imanaga (SP-CHC) earned the W over the Braves with a solid if unspectacular outing in which he allowed 3 runs on 5 hits and a walk while fanning a pair over 6 IP. The 32 year-old LHP yielded a pair of big flies while tossing 49 of his 78 offerings for strikes in the contest. Imanaga now claims a 3.15 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 4.55 xFIP across 123 IP this year. The gap between the ERA and xFIP is concerning because it points to a .208 BABIP and 86% strand rate suppressing the former. Meanwhile, Imanaga’s swinging-strike rate isn’t bad at 11.5%, although it’s down significantly from 2024 (14.5%). He’s also yielded a bit more loud contact than he did in 2024 as his hard-hit rate is up to 39.5% (was 39%), his barrel rate is up to 10% (was 8.5%), and his average exit velo is up to 90 mph (88.5). Early next week, Imanaga is slated to take on an Atlanta lineup that ranks in the bottom 1/3 of the majors in team OPS (.711) over the last 15 days.
Garrett Crochet (SP-BOS) looked very human against Cleveland on Tuesday as he coughed up 7 runs (all earned) on 9 hits and no walks while striking out 4 over 6 IP. The 26 year-old lefty served up four round trippers as he fired 62 of his 81 pitches for strikes in the outing. It was a rare blemish on what has been a stellar campaign overall for Crochet, who now boasts a 2.67 ERA, 11 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 2.74 xFIP across a career-high 178.1 IP. One might fairly wonder if Crochet is tiring a bit down the stretch but one poor outing to start September isn’t enough to indicate that it’s the case as he’s coming off a strong August in which he registered a 3.19 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, and 2.62 xFIP over 31 IP. Look for the southpaw to bounce back next time out as the flurry of loud contact for Cleveland was a real outlier as Crochet’s Statcast profile entering the outing was strong with a 37% hard-hit rate, 7% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 87.5 mph. He lines up to face the Athletics on the road early next week.
Nolan McLean (SP-NYM) put together another quality start as he earned a W over the Tigers on Tuesday (6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K). The 25 year-old righty fired 56 of his 90 offerings for strikes while keeping the ball in the yard. It’s been an impressive start to an MLB career for McLean, who now owns a 1.37 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 2.73 xFIP across 26.1 IP (4 starts). A .207 BABIP and 68% strand rate won’t last forever, but McLean is helping himself by missing some bats (11.5%), limiting the free passes, and inducing lots of grounders (68% groundball rate). However, an 86% in-zone contact rate with a lot of loud contact (47% hard-hit rate, 8.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo north of 90 mph) is concerning. McLean will face a big test in Philadelphia early next week.
This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for tools that will help you win your fantasy championship. Click here for details: http://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
