It’s the final table of the €220 Hendon Mob event at the SiGMA Poker Tour in Malta. Eight players remain, and I’m (Lukas Robinson) the chip leader with €5,050 and a trophy up top. In one key hand, I find myself out of position holding pocket eights on a river board of J♣10♠9♥A♦K♦. I decide to donk jam all-in, putting my opponent to the ultimate test.
But was this bluff successful and does the solver agree with my line? Let’s break it down.
Event Info
Event: €220 Hendon Mob Event at the Sigma Poker Tour in Malta
Players Left: 8
Blind Levels: 10K/20K/20K
Payouts:
1st €5050
2nd €3200
3rd €2240
4th €1770
5th €1440
6th €1130
7th €910
8th €730
Stack Sizes and Positions
Me (UTG): 475,000 (23.75bb)
(EP): 250,000 (12.5bb)
(MP): 200,000 (10bb)
(HJ): 280,000 (14bb)
(CO): 180,000 (9bb)
(BTN): 280,000 (14bb)
(SB): 440,000 (22bb)
(BB): 360,000 (18bb)
Pre-flop Action
I open 8♠8♣ from UTG to 40K (2bb), the button makes the call, and both blinds fold, taking us heads-up to the flop.
Post-Flop
Flop: J♣10♠9♦
Pot Size: 110K
Action: I check. BTN bets 30K. I call.
Turn: A♦
Pot Size: 170K
Action: I check. They bet 30K. I call.
River: K♠
Pot Size: 230K
Action: I donk-bet for 180K, forcing my opponent all-in. They snap-call. I table my pocket eights, but they turn over ATo for two pair and scoop the pot.
Pre-flop Analysis
I open UTG to 2bb with 8♠8♣. GTO Approved ✔️
Pocket eights sit right at the bottom of the solver’s profitable open range from UTG in this spot.
BTN calls with ATo. GTO Disapproved ✖️
The solver recommends mostly folding ATo here, playing only about 8% of hands in this spot and never flatting with any combos. Here’s why:
Bubble Factors at This Final Table
Here, we can see that the BTN has a 13% Risk Premium vs me.
What is a Risk Premium in Poker?
A risk premium is the extra equity a player needs in a hand to justify putting chips into the pot, because losing those chips carries a bigger cost in ICM terms than the potential gain.
Since the BTN is covered by me, the chip leader, and is sitting in the middle of the pack, they need 13% more equity than in a chipEV scenario just to continue. This makes calling very unattractive: UTG’s opening range is already strong and the BTN risks domination postflop. Rather than flatting and playing marginal, risky hands, the BTN should either 3-bet with strong holdings (or select bluffs with good blockers) and fold everything else.
Because the solver recommends folding ATo most of the time and never flatting, I nodelocked the BTN range to reflect how I think this specific opponent would actually play their range. He was very loose, limping most hands, so the range I’ve constructed below is reasonable for him in this spot.
Post-flop Analysis
Flop (110K): J♣T♠9♥
I check the flop. GTO Approved ✔️
Solver recommended flop strategy from UTG:
Solver recommended strategy on the flop with 88:
As you can see, most combos of 88 are mixing between a 25% bet or a check. Overall, however, the solver recommends betting over 80% of your range from UTG. This is because UTG holds a significant range advantage on this flop compared to the BTN’s flatting range.
BTN bets 30K (1.5bb) on the flop. GTO Approved (Barely) ✔️
Solver recommended flop strategy from BTN:
The solver recommends checking 76% of your range on this flop from the BTN. ATo is mostly checked, but as you can see below, the EV differences between checking and betting are small. The solver does allow for a low-frequency bet with all combos of ATo. However, if you want to choose the highest EV play for this hand, checking is slightly better overall than betting.
I call the 30K bet on the flop with 8♠8♣. GTO Approved✔️
Solver recommended strategy from UTG vs 30K bet from BTN:
The solver recommends pure-calling all combos of 88 on the flop. You can see some A9o combos beginning to fold, while 88 continues, thanks to its open-ended straight draw.
Above, you can see the EV comparisons for all options, with calling providing the highest EV on the flop.
Turn (170K): A♦
I check the turn. GTO Approved✔️
Solver recommended turn strategy from UTG:
The solver suggests donk-betting 4.5% of the time in this spot, but to simplify your entire range, it’s generally easier to play a range check on the turn. For 88 specifically, the solver recommends a pure check.
BTN bets 30K (1.5bb) on the turn. GTO Approved✔️
Solver recommended turn strategy from BTN:
The solver recommends betting 48% of your range on the turn, but prefers a sizing of 3.8bb instead of the 1.5bb used here. So, while betting the turn with ATo isn’t a mistake, the larger size is preferred, as it sets up the geometry for a potential river all-in more effectively.
What is a geometric bet size?
A geometric bet size is one where you bet a consistent percentage of the pot on each street so that stacks end up effectively going all-in on the river. This approach is optimal when your range is perfectly polarized, as it maximizes minimum defense frequency (MDF) while ensuring that the full stacks are committed by the river.
I call the 30K bet on the turn with 8♠8♣. GTO Disapproved ✖️
Solver recommended turn strategy from UTG vs 30K bet from BTN:
I’m going to be hard on myself and say this play was solver-disapproved, simply because 88 is the only combo in our entire range with a high folding frequency here, which is mainly due to the small bet sizing and needing to defend at our minimum defense frequency (MDF).
What is MDF?
MDF = Minimum Defense Frequency
It’s a concept from game theory that tells you how often you must continue (call or raise) versus a bet so that your opponent can’t profitably bluff with any two cards.
River (230K): K♠
I donk-bet putting my opponent all-in. GTO Approved (Barely) ✔️
Solver recommended river strategy from UTG:
I’ll be a bit kinder to myself on this street. While the solver doesn’t recommend using the all-in sizing on the river, 88 is the best hand to use as a bluff. This is because weaker holdings rarely make it to the river, and to remain balanced and unexploitable, 88 serves as the main river bluff in the range. My reasoning for jamming in-game was exactly this, plus, I expected my opponent to fold everything except straights to this all-in size. They snapped with two pair, which made me feel a bit foolish, but let’s take a closer look at whether they should be folding all non-straight hands to this sizing on the river.
My opponent calls the river all-in with ATo. GTO Disapproved ✖️
Solver recommended river strategy for the BTN facing an all-in bet from UTG:
As shown above, the solver recommends mostly calling with straights and sets to the all-in sizing. Interestingly, AJs is the only two-pair combo that is meant to pure-call on the river.
Although the solver recommends calling with a single ATo combo (A♣T♥), all other ATo combos are -EV to call the river all-in.
Conclusion
ICM and final tables in poker are tough. One moment you’re chip-leading, and the next you’re watching your bluff get snap-called while sitting at the bottom of the chip counts. While I didn’t get this particular bluff through, I’m proud of how I played the hand, especially on the river, where I recognized in-game that this was my best bluff overall. Against a different opponent or on another day, I might have gotten the snap fold instead of the snap call from the two pair!
These types of hands excite me to continue doing more ICM hand reviews, both of my own play and some involving the best players in the world, to better understand how to tackle these challenging final table spots.
If you want to improve your ICM and final table game, click the link below and sign up to GTO Wizard for free today.
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