We’re about 2/3 through the season. We’ll be looking for players who have been hot recently and if these recent stretches are the results of real changes or just a hot streak that will decline at any moment.
Matthew Boyd, SP, Chicago Cubs
Injuries have been a real issue for Matthew Boyd. He had not thrown more than 80 IP in a season since 2019, when he pitched for Detroit. Since then, he has bounced around to Seattle, back to Detroit, Cleveland, and now the Cubs. This season he finally seems fully healthy and has already thrown 130.2 IP. They’ve been strong innings too. He has a 2.34 ERA, 1.03 WHIP (career-best), 23.0% K%, and 5.6% BB% (also career-best). How real is it?
His overall PLV is a league average 5.00. He has a below-average 95 Stuff+, 108 Location+, and 99 Pitching+. PLV and Stuff+ only go back to 2020, but he’s always had below-average to average grades. He’s been so injury-plagued since 2020 it can be less helpful to look at all his partial seasons over than span, but I also feel like comparing him to 2019 isn’t good either because it’s so far back. However, from 2020 to 2024 he threw 263 IP, had a 4.65 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 22.9 % K%, and 8.1% BB%. This year he has increased his four-seamer usage to 46% and his curveball slightly to 11%. In turn, his slider usage has dropped to 16% and his sinker usage is all the way down to 4%.
His four-seamer velocity is up to 93.3 mph, it has an average PLV and below-average Stuff+ of 87. It also has poor extension and iVB.
PLV views the curveball as below-average and Stuff+ as about average. One interesting thing about it is that it has a 30.9% hiloc. That’s 93rd percentile. He uses it to catch batters off-guard to steal strikes, as it has a 91st percentile CS%. That’s good as it has just a 7th percentile SwStr%.
Lastly, his slider has gotten mixed results throughout his career and also gets mixed grades by the various stuff models. I suspect decreasing its usage hasn’t played a large role in his success.
Verdict: Mostly not legit. This could be a case of a veteran pitcher with a fairly wide arsenal simply knowing how to pitch. His 108 Location+ suggests he’s in a good rhythm. The Cubs also have a good team defense and an excellent CF. However, I simply don’t see this ERA and WHIP remaining so low. I don’t see any significant changes to his arsenal or how he uses it. I expect him to remain helpful, but not like this.
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
Nick Kurtz has had a phenomenal rookie season. In 301 PA he has a .304/.380/.650 slash, 30.3% K%, 11.0% BB%, and 177 wRC+. His Statcast sliders are off the charts.
The astounding thing is that he is getting better. In 96 PA since July 6 he has a .438/.526/.975 slash, 21.9% K%, 14.6% BB%, and 301 wRC+. Oh, and he has a .538 ISO over that period. Before this absurd stretch, he had a 33.5% K%. Seemingly, his only weakness has been too much swing-and-miss, but he’s been addressing that.
His O-Swing% and SwStr% have been dropping. He has elite Bat Speed, a 113.8 Max EV, and fantastic 20.0% Barrel%.
Verdict: Legit. This one is easy. He obviously won’t keep up his current pace, but he should remain one of the game’s best hitters. He will likely have to address holes that pitchers find throughout his career, but there is very little not to like about Nick Kurtz.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Andrew Vaughn has had a largely disappointing career. He was drafted 3rd overall by the White Sox in 2019. FanGraphs rated him their 13th overall prospect and gave him 55/70 Hit, 50/60 Game Power, and 60/60 Raw Power. Prior to July 7 this year, he had 2,454 PA, a .248/.303/.408 slash, 20.4% K%, 6.3% BB%, and 97 wRC+. Not terrible by any means, but definitely not living up to his prospect hype. In 77 PA since debuting with the Brewers on July 7 however, he has a .373/.429/.701 slash, 13.0% K%, 10.4% BB%, and a 209 wRC+. Did the Brewers make some changes with him? Was he already making changes? Is this just a hot streak?
Starting on May 1, he opened his stance 14 degrees.
Source: Baseball Savant
Shortly after he made the change about Game 30, some of his other metrics began to change.
He chased less, pulled more consistently, and his overall performance improved.
His Launch Angle also began to climb.
However, you’ll notice that his launch angle has been declining over the last few weeks. It also seems like he has been gradually closing his stance again, which may be causing him to hit more ground balls.
Verdict: Not Legit. It’s difficult to believe his recent strong performance is caused by a rather simple stance change, but it seems to be. He appears to be gradually reverting back to his old stance, however. I don’t know if he will rectify that. Because of that, I’d defer to the numbers from the rest of his career, rather than the last few months.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
