10 Dynasty Takeaways from 2025: Pitcher

Here are a few targeted recommendations for dynasty leagues, along with key trends from 2025 that can inform your 2026 roster decisions.

 

Ten Dynasty Takeaways from 2025: Pitcher

 

1) Prospect Pitchers Are Still Hit or Miss

My first year writing for Pitcher List was largely spent building a weekly stash list—tracking pitchers who might soon deliver real value to your fantasy roster. I feel good about the work: identifying names to watch, estimating timelines, and outlining the paths each pitcher could take to succeed in the majors. But as always, baseball had its own plans. A few players I expected to make meaningful impacts didn’t (Bubba Chandler, Andrew Painter), while others arrived far sooner than anyone predicted (Cam Schlittler, Chase Burns, Nolan McLean, and eventually Trey Yesavage). Forecasting the future can be frustrating, but the challenge—and the appeal—is refining the process week after week. I leaned on a mix of demonstrated skills, recent performance trends, and amateur scouting reports. Still, things change quickly. Opportunities emerge that were never part of the “expected” development path.

Team context—injuries, trades, open rotation spots, and roster expansion—is often the biggest driver of a surprise call-up. It also shifts rapidly and is notoriously tough to project. Rotation injuries opened the door for Logan Henderson and Noah Cameron to debut as season-long stash targets. Only Cameron returned value, despite the underwhelming strikeout rate, while Henderson’s run ended abruptly due to his own injury.

It’s rare for a young pitcher to force an early promotion, which is why identifying outlier traits is so important: elite velocity, freakish movement, maximum extension, or simply dominant results. Chase Burns was the prime lottery ticket, sporting a 30% K%-BB% that would have delivered even more value if not for injury. Jacob Misiorowski repeatedly touched 100 mph with ridiculous extension, leaving the Brewers little choice but to stop wasting those pitches in Nashville.

Meanwhile, the late-season risers fit the more traditional prospect arc—steady development leading to a conservative timeline—but several still delivered strong value in short bursts. Nolan McLean enters 2026 as a top-two pitching prospect, even though he trailed behind Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong on most lists in early May. Connelly Early delivered the biggest surprise with a 1.1 WAR impact in just four starts.

These examples underline both the predictable uncertainty and inevitable randomness of pitcher promotions. We know teams may delay a call-up for service-time reasons, but not exactly how long. We know rosters expand in September, but not whether a thriving prospect will actually get the nod. That uncertainty is the challenge—and the intrigue—of projecting pitcher call-ups.

Below is a list of prospect pitchers sorted by their 2025 debut date.

 

 

2) Chase Burns is the Rookie to Target

Strikeout rate and walk rate are two of the stickiest pitching metrics from year to year, and Chase Burns enters 2026 with elite numbers in both. With a near 30% K-BB%, he set an incredibly high bar in his debut season with Cincinnati. The 6’3″ righty tore through the minors on the strength of a dominant two-pitch mix—pounding the zone, missing bats, and limiting hard contact. He wrapped up his minor league stint with a 37% strikeout rate, a 5% walk rate, and a .166 average against.

Even after jumping to the majors, Burns carried most of that dominance with him, posting a 38% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate, and a .241 average allowed as a starter. While there were early concerns about his fastball entering the zone on too hittable of a plane, it was actually the slider that proved both a weapon and a liability. The breaker generated a ridiculous 47% strikeout rate and 44% whiff rate, but it also surrendered three home runs. He was deploying fastballs nearly 60% of the time, and the slider appeared 35% of the time. If Burns can develop one of his secondary offerings—whether the changeup, sinker, or curveball—into a more reliable third pitch, his entire arsenal could take a leap. Another potential growth area is extension; his current 6.4 feet of fastball extension is below league average, and adding even a bit more could help him squeeze out extra velocity without throwing harder.

At his current NFBC ADP of 122, Burns is priced appropriately as a fantasy SP3, where he’s going off the board as the 44th pitcher and 31st starter. Steamer projects a 27% strikeout rate (155 K), 7% walk rate, and a 3.72 ERA over 136 innings. Given that Burns reached 109.1 innings in 2025, a realistic bump to around 150 innings would push him closer to 180 strikeouts—solid SP2 territory. Compared to other rookie arms like Nolan McLean and Trey Yesavage, who each come with control concerns, Burns offers the superior strikeout foundation and a clearer pathway to frontline upside.

Health remains the final box to check. His late-season return in five bullpen appearances was an encouraging sign that the forearm issue is behind him—at least for now. If he stays on the mound, Burns has the skill set to outperform his draft cost and emerge as one of the best value picks among young starters.

 

3) The Southpaw Advantage

In general, starting pitchers are not seeing as many batters as they did the previous year and dramatically less than they were 9-10 years ago. More acutely, lefties are diminishing in volume at the same time that their performance is far outpacing right-handed starters. Southpaws have improved their swing-and-miss stuff, honed their control, and limited contact. While both sets of arms have greatly increased their fastball velocity, both conditions of better velocity training and shorter outings, differences in their Stuff+ numbers across all pitch types are imperceptible. While I cannot offer a studied theory as to why lefties are outperforming righties, the decreasing population will likely accelerate their positive results as hitters see fewer left-handed pitchers across all levels of their development.

Does this trend indicate that a left-handed pitcher has a higher probability of succeeding? If you believe that it does, then you should pay closer attention to your roster construction by filling it with a decent number of left-handed pitchers.

 

 

4) Connelly Early is the Lefty to Believe In

Connelly Early impressed in his brief run with Boston, looking sharp across four regular-season starts. His debut set the tone—he punched out 11 Athletics over five innings—and he finished his first taste of the majors with a 36% strikeout rate and a strong 16% swinging-strike rate.

Early works with a deep, five-pitch arsenal led by a 94 mph four-seamer and a tight, faster curveball, both of which generated whiffs north of 40%. His above-average 6.9 feet of extension lowers his release height and helps his pitches play up. The changeup, a low-spin 84 mph offering with 13 inches of break, gives him another effective look, while the sinker—despite 18 inches of arm-side run—underperformed with a .300 average against and a modest 23% whiff rate.

What makes Early intriguing is how well-rounded he already is. He shows excellent command (64% strike rate, 5.1% walk rate), true swing-and-miss ability (16% swinging-strike rate, 34% whiff rate), and an ability to limit damage (88 mph average exit velocity, low home run rates, 47% groundball rate). With a versatile mix that keeps hitters of both handedness off balance and enough stuff to miss plenty of bats, Early looks like a pitcher capable of helping fantasy managers in multiple categories right away.

Early’s current ADP sits at 205, making him the 80th pitcher and 60th starter off the board. With Boston’s rotation looking thin as of November—Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval didn’t throw a single inning in 2025—Early and fellow rookie Peyton Tolle have a very real chance to break camp in starting roles. The recent acquisition of Sonny Gray does provide more depth, so one of the rookies is much more likely to begin the season in Triple-A.

Steamer’s projection is on the conservative side: 122 innings with a 22% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. I’d bet on more. Early’s workload should push higher, and his K%-BB% has room to outperform those estimates, especially with PLV grading his pitch mix so well. If Chase Burns’ price climbs too high on draft day, Early becomes my preferred rookie target—strong skills and a path to meaningful innings.

 

5) The Automatic Ball Strike System Will Reward These Pitchers

People should love the incoming ABS system as an equitable evolution in calling balls and strikes that doesn’t remove the human element from the game, but enhances a human’s ability to strategize within the game. Catchers who frame well will still steal strikes. Hitters who have a great eye will be able to call BS on an umpire to preserve their at-bat. Pitchers, who have the best view of the strike zone, will get a new weapon to keep hitters honest around the entire strike zone. Managers will have a new tool for holding umpires accountable for calling a fair game. And fans will get a new excuse for the shifting momentum of a game.

Which pitchers will benefit the most? The working hypothesis for pitchers who will benefit revolves around CS% and ZONE%. The hurlers who can land their pitches in the zone and have historically earned a high rate of called strikes already should benefit even more than those who are already posting high strikeout rates.

While writing this section of this article, I came across Baseball America’s take on the beneficiaries of the ABS Challenge System. They came up with a chart for Shadow-Zone Called Strike percentages, and I was able to recreate it on Baseball Savant here by selecting the specific zones and pitch results. The article only discussed hitters, but the assumption is that pitchers who are already having success in the shadows should see their strike percentages soar.

 

Here are a few notable starters at the top of the list:

 

Injured Pitchers Come in A Few Flavors

No fantasy team can afford to take unlimited risk, which makes drafting injured players a careful balancing act—too many “value” picks can quickly destabilize a roster. Understanding the specifics of a pitcher’s injury and their expected recovery timeline is essential for integrating these higher-risk players effectively. Even amid setbacks and uneven performances, pitchers still fall into distinct flavors, helping managers gauge upside, risk, and timing.

Injuries and short-term recovery concerns like these often suppress a player’s draft cost, creating excellent opportunities to grab high-upside value.

 

6) Variance Vanilla

These players returned in 2025 from the IL with uneven performances.

Spencer Strider struggled in 2025 as his fastball lost some of its zip, and hitters punished him with elevated hard-hit rates. Still, he managed enough high-strikeout outings to hint at a promising rebound. Similarly, Cristian Javier is coming off Tommy John surgery with a diminished arsenal. His strikeout rates are down, but a few solid starts show flashes of his pre-injury potential. Eury Perez was a fantastic midseason pickup, though his fastball eventually lost its edge, leading to a surge in home runs allowed. Still, looking ahead, he has a full offseason to refine his approach and build on a strong 27% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. Cole Ragans started the season strong, but a rotator cuff strain sidelined him until September. When he returned, he dominated in his final three games, recording 22 strikeouts and just four walks while sitting at 95 mph. Sean Manaea experimented with a new arm angle in 2024 to great effect, but an early-season IL stint and uneven outings forced him into a shortened role just when the Mets needed him most, even though he posted the highest strikeout rate of his career. Ryan Weathers was one of the buzziest names in spring training thanks to increased velocity, but a forearm strain followed by a lat injury in June derailed his season. At least he finished healthy with a three-game stretch of solid results. Shane Bieber returned from Tommy John surgery to lead the Blue Jays to the World Series. While his velocity hasn’t fully returned to pre-injury levels, his elite control has remained intact, keeping him an effective frontline starter.

 

7) Rocky Road

Ended 2025 on IL, and there are concerns for their 2026 status.

Zack Wheeler fits squarely into this “high-uncertainty” category, given the unknowns surrounding his blood clot and the long recovery from shoulder surgery. While it’s positive that the condition isn’t considered long-term, there’s no guarantee he’ll return to ace form in 2026.

Spencer Schwellenbach boosted his velocity but ended the season with a cracked forearm bone that didn’t require surgery. Reynaldo López must reestablish himself as a starter after reaching a career-high innings total in 2024. Grant Holmes opted for rehab instead of elbow surgery and will likely begin 2026 in the bullpen. With four Braves pitchers in this profile, it’s clear Atlanta is looking to stabilize its rotation.

Brandon Woodruff struggled with diminished fastball velocity during his comeback, and his free-agent contract could signal how much teams trust his health. The same goes for fellow free agent Corbin Burnes. Kris Bubic didn’t throw in 2025, but he reportedly looks healthy after several strong seven-inning simulated outings. Christian Scott, Jared Jones, and Shane McClanahan all have spring training to prove they’re worth drafting in roto leagues again. Grayson Rodriguez, after a series of setbacks post-elbow surgery, is virtually undraftable. Yu Darvish is out all of 2026 with a UCL injury—an easy “do not draft.”

The Padres’ playoff hopes hinge on Joe Musgrove returning from Tommy John surgery. When we last saw him in August 2024, his strikeout numbers were trending up thanks to strong control. Zach Eflin underwent back surgery after a rough 2025 season, increasing the pressure on him to rebound as a free agent. Reese Olson largely matched his previous output but flashed a few standout outings before a July shoulder strain ended his season. Detroit’s Sawyer Gipson-Long has been plagued by injuries after 2024 Tommy John surgery, including groin, hip, and neck issues.

Yusei Kikuchi finished 2025 with a forearm contusion, and his slider suffered, leading to more hits and walks allowed. Spencer Arrighetti was on track to become a reliable starter, but a freak thumb injury in batting practice, compounded by an elbow issue, cut that short. The team believes he’ll be fully healthy for spring training, where his curveball and slider combination will determine if he can reclaim draft-worthy form.

 

8) Stabilizer Sherbet

Finished 2025 on IL with Fewer Concerns

Carlos Rodón underwent arm surgery in October, but it was a relatively minor procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow, and he’s expected to miss only the first few weeks of 2026. Similarly, Nathan Eovaldi should be ready for spring training after recovering from sports hernia surgery. Pablo López didn’t require surgery, and his forearm reportedly healed enough for him to potentially resume his streak of 32 starts in a season. While Lopez has consistently reached that mark from 2022–2024, he still carries an “injury-prone” reputation.

 

9) Unleash the Beast in Kyle Bradish

Kyle Bradish is one of my top draft targets for 2026—not just for his elite strikeout ability but also because his name recognition has dipped more than it should. Fantasy managers were in a similar spot back in 2024, when Bradish followed up 168.2 innings with a 25% K rate, 7% walk rate, and a 2.83 ERA. Now he enters 2026 coming off 32 innings featuring a 37% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, and a 2.53 ERA.

His underlying metrics back up the dominance: a 30% chase rate, 14% swinging-strike rate, and just 68% contact allowed. Over time, Bradish has leaned more heavily on a 95 mph sinker that shows surprising vertical break (16″) with minimal horizontal movement (2″). His gyro slider remains his primary putaway pitch, and the curveball continues to generate strikeouts as well. With his velocity and movement metrics back in line with 2023 levels, there’s renewed confidence that he can shoulder a full workload in 2026.

In the small 2025 sample, the increased fly-ball rate stands out, but his ERA indicators suggest the results were earned and consistent with both his history and league norms. Pair that with a strong finish to 2025 and a favorable home park, and Bradish profiles as an excellent No. 3 starter for fantasy rotations.

Steamer currently projects him for a 25% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate over 162 innings. That feels conservative given his recent profile—I’d expect something closer to a 30% strikeout rate. One interesting wrinkle: his arm slot shifts by a few degrees depending on the pitch type, which may ease hitters’ ability to pick up the ball.

10) Aging Vets Enter Their Final Run

If Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer retire this offseason, baseball will lose four of its most durable arms and several of the greatest pitchers of their generation. Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw alone combined for 63 complete games and more than 3,000 strikeouts each—numbers that feel almost mythical in today’s era. As someone over 40 who believes deeply in the power of fitness, I admire athletes who continue performing at an elite level “past their prime.” Their longevity shouldn’t be taken for granted.

Of course, durability doesn’t mean these pitchers are created equal. Charlie Morton logged two fewer seasons than Kershaw but earned barely a third of Kershaw’s WAR. Just surviving the grind of professional pitching for a decade requires remarkable determination. Compare that with Jacob deGrom—he’s the same age as the retiring Kershaw but has thrown barely half as many innings. Because he has less wear on his arm, deGrom may actually have a better chance of repeating his dominant 2025 numbers. Chris Sale, meanwhile, has battled through multiple injuries yet kept pace with his peers in innings thrown. Nathan Eovaldi faces a similar pattern, often missing chunks of each season, while still projecting well for 2026. Despite their mileage, veterans like Sale, Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, and Kevin Gausman all look poised for strong 2026 campaigns. Merrill Kelly, whose odometer is higher than it appears thanks to years in the minors and four more in the KBO, just delivered his best season since 2022.

There’s no single age when pitchers hit the wall, but the arc of decline is real—shaped by their skills, workloads, and efficiency. Tellingly, none of these veterans walk more than 8.8% of hitters or strike the zone less than 63% of the time. Avoiding wasted pitches allows them to stay competitive longer, maximizing results even as the years add up.

 

Starting Pitchers 34+ years old Career Stats

*retiring after 2025

^free agent entering 2026

+pitched abroad, so the chart doesn’t reflect their full career numbers

 

Bonus) Defense Matters…or does it?

Nick Pollack sent out an interesting tweet about the importance of considering defense when forecasting starting rotations. It happened after the Sonny Gray trade to Boston and before Dylan Cease was signed by Toronto. It may not have been in context to any specific transaction, but it was a helpful reminder that scouring projections and ADP charts are just a portion of the off-season draft prep process.

This is the #1 most overlooked stat when assessing Starting Pitchers.

The defense behind them.

If you can determine defensive strength in the pre-season, you WILL have a leg up. pic.twitter.com/A6xL8lJzHS

— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) November 26, 2025

I’m only moderately versed in defensive metrics, so if you want the full deep dive, FanGraphs is the place to go. What matters for our purposes is understanding that team defense is really just the sum of its parts—a few standout players (good or bad) can swing a club’s overall scores in a big way. Some metrics emphasize range, others are designed to compare defenders across positions, but here we’re zooming out to look at overall team direction heading into 2026.

Of course, plenty of variables can disrupt defensive trends: new managers, coaching changes, roster shuffling, players learning new positions, even ballpark renovations. Still, despite the noise, we can sketch out reasonable expectations for how these defenses might perform next season.

The chart below reflects the previous three years (2023-2025) of Defensive Runs Saved, Framing, Outs Above Average, Fielding Run Value, and Defensive Runs Above Average. Note that the Sparklines for each team are not scaled to the same y-axis. They start at different points on the vertical axis, but they offer a quick visual display to understand the general direction each team’s defense may be heading.

The three-year cumulative defense rankings put the Brewers and Blue Jays at the top—an encouraging sign for fantasy managers eyeing their deep, high-quality 2026 rotations. Strong team defense doesn’t guarantee success, but it definitely raises the floor. The Royals come in third, though they’re worth a closer look after several defensive metrics dipped last season, likely influenced by their constantly shifting outfield mix.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Red Sox, Reds, and Athletics are crawling upward from dreadful to merely below average. It’s progress, but still not enough to inspire confidence. The Marlins’ consistently poor defense is more concerning, especially since many of their arms offer enticing skills on paper. And some teams—namely the White Sox, Angels, and Nationals—continue to trot out lineups that actively hurt their pitchers, making their rotations easy to avoid.

Catcher framing remains one of the most impactful components of team defense. Strong framers help their staff steal strikes; weak ones take them away. The Giants benefit from the league’s premier framer, Patrick Bailey, while Austin Wells, Alejandro Kirk, and Cal Raleigh also elevate their rotations. On the flip side, the Phillies have slipped into the basement alongside the Rockies, Angels, Athletics, and Nationals. There are bright spots, though: Carlos Narváez is helping Boston trend upward, and Gabriel Moreno continues to boost Arizona’s staff.

Ultimately, tracking team defensive trends can meaningfully shape draft strategy. Poor defense should temper expectations—and draft cost—for pitchers like Shane Smith, Noah Schultz, Tanner McDougal, Hagen Smith, MacKenzie Gore, José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi, and Grayson Rodriguez. Meanwhile, strong defensive environments should boost confidence in Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Garret Crochet, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, and Quinn Priester.